Max Planck Institute for Foreign and International Criminal Law

Project Description:

The maintenance of security and order has traditionally been regarded as one of the most important duties of cities and local authorities. Although Criminology has addressed geographical and urban problems for a long time, the practical relevance of the topic was exclusively conceptualised in connection with the increasing discussion on situational crime prevention and the renaissance of opportunity-based theories of deviant behaviour. The subject of the present examination is the empirical appraisal of crime prevention initiatives in the structural and architectural context of two large housing estates respectively located in East- and West-Germany. Formerly considered achievements of modernity, these estates are now often regarded as “hatcheries of crime”. Structural damage, vandalism and the coexistence of problematic circumstances are common attributes contributing to the general image of decay of high-rise residential estates. Criminology has made several recommendations for the reduction of crime and fear of crime in public spaces. Many of these suggestions have since been implemented but large-scale studies on the success of these measures are still lacking – at least in Germany.
Given the scarcity of financial resources and their sometimes questionable attribution, it is also necessary to examine the success of crime preventive initiatives in Germany as has already been done in other countries. This project therefore attempts to evaluate the success of urban measures particularly with regard to crime trends and to fear of crime. The following underlying questions are central to the research:

• To what extent do structural interventions have an impact on the general well-being, the turnover rate and the socio-demographic structure of the residents?
• Are rehabilitative measures successful in to reducing the fear of crime and the crime rate and disorder?
• To what extent do rehabilitative measures influence the residents’ sense of responsibility and the degree of social control?
• Do rehabilitative measures displace crime and to what extent are measures like this efficient with regard to cost and benefit?

Working plan 2005-2007:

Significant differences regarding the architectural and social structure in East- and West-German large housing estates require conducting the examination in both parts of Germany. Whereas East-Germanys “Plattenbau”-areas are characterised by structural homogeneity and social heterogeneity, West-German large housing estates are architecturally more varied but populated by a very homogeneous social group. Therefore it is questionable whether similar measures have the same results in these different conditions.
In the initial phase, the analysis of local sites through photos, architectural plans, press reports, etc. will impart a preliminary visual impression of the local circumstances. In addition, crime statistics from the time before, during and after the implementation of the measures studied will provide information about long-term trends in recorded crime. Subsequently, social data provided by local authorities and residential developers will be used in order to gain insight into the socio-demographic composition of the local population. Standardised interviews with select experts will then be used to support the primary data through qualitative analysis.
The foundation of the research activity will however be a survey of 500 randomly selected residents in both research locations. The survey aims to shed light on the number of unreported cases and to complete the official data through the voluntary and anonymous completion of questionnaires by members of the local population. In addition, the inquiry should provide information about the degree of individual insecurity as well as about crime rate trends since rehabilitation measures were implemented in the area. Indeed, measuring trends presupposes the data collection both prior to and following the implementation of a particular measure. Given the limited time-frame of this examination on the one hand, and the obviously longer duration of structural measures on the other, it is however impossible to conduct the survey in terms of a pre-/post-design. Therefore a retrospective evaluation was chosen, which appeals to the collective memory of the residents in order to trace trends in crime and fear of crime.
Finally, the quantitative analysis should serve to validate hypotheses about the correlation between urban structure, rehabilitation measures and trends in crime and fear of crime, which are derived from preliminary ideas and local site-visits. Ideally, in order to guarantee both internal and external validity as well as to analyse displacement-trends it would be helpful to incorporate nearby non-rehabilitated areas. However, economic conjecture in recent years has made necessary the adoption of new strategies by developers, in order to combat rising vacancy rates. Although rehabilitative initiatives in large housing estates abound, the effectiveness of these measures has yet to be ascertained. The aim of the project presented here is to address this existing gap.