Max Planck Institute for Foreign and International Criminal Law

Criminological research of recidivism is of extreme importance for criminal policy and practice. However at present, no statistics on the occurrence of recidivism exist in Germany. The aim of the current study is to try and examine the success rate of the German criminal justice system as concerns criminal relapses and reconvictions. Through such an analysis, policy makers will receive representative material about the likelihood of recidivism after the imposition of criminal sanctions.

The first wave of the study was comprised of all individuals who had either received a non-custodial sentence (fine, probation, conviction or other corrective measures based on criminal law concerning young offenders) during 2004 or who had been released from a custodial sentence during that year (custodial sentence, youth custody, remainder of a custodial sentence in the case of a revoked probation, placement in a psychiatric hospital, detoxification clinic or preventive detention). These individuals where monitored over a three year period to determine whether they subsequently appeared again in the Federal Register of Judicial Convictions. Based on this data, a comprehensive overview on recidivism dependent on type of sanction, type of offence, previous convictions, age and gender of the convicted person was obtained.

The results from the first wave will be published in 2010. The project is conducted in cooperation with the Institute of Criminal Law and Criminal Justice at the University of Göttingen and has been commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Justice.

The study concerning the base year 2004 laid the foundation for a periodical recidivism study. It is planed that criminal records will be collected every three years and will be merged with the existing database.

The second wave intends to update the data to the years 2010 and 2011 and allow for a new recidivism study concerning the base year 2007 to take place with an observation period of three years. At the same time, this second wave will also provide the ability to analyse a recidivism interval of up to six years. Consequently, the timeframe for an analysis of criminal behaviour is greatly enlarged. Extended observation periods are especially crucial for the study of criminal behaviour of sexual or other violent delinquents. This group of offenders frequently relapses back into crime many years after their last conviction or release from prison. Thus, the possibility of a longitudinal approach offers serious potential for analyses that go far beyond what can be achieved by single and separate data analyses. At this point in time, the project is to be continued through to 2012 (inclusive).

Research on recidivism is also of great relevance at an international level. Based on official data, many European countries conduct analyses of criminal behaviour. However, a comparison of the recidivism statistics is limited by several factors that influence the results. For example, recidivism analyses are strongly dependent on the database used, but are also heavily influenced by judicial factors and analysis methods as well. For instance, there are differences concerning the classification of certain incidences as a crime, as well as the registration of certain sanctions. Furthermore, the data differs insofar as some countries register every offence separately, whereas in other countries, such as Germany, offences which are tried together are registered together. The definition of what is considered as recidivism also varies. Does the offence have to be similar to the previous offence or are minor offences considered, too? Nonetheless, despite these difficulties, an increase or decrease of recidivism rates is, with some reservations, generally comparable at a relative level over the long-term.