Max Planck Institute for Foreign and International Criminal Law

The starting point of the project is that dynamic risk factors that influence recidivism after release from prison - such as the subject’s residential area, the size of the place of residence or the domestic situation – have generally not been taken into account by most studies (see below under Current Project Status). This is in stark contrast to static risk factors which are more accessible and therefore provide a starting point for meaningful (social) therapeutic measures prior to release. Static risk factors include age at the time of offence and age upon release, the number of previous convictions and the types of offences. In addition, assessment of the likelihood of recidivism is also based on retrospective studies using data obtained from the Bundeszentralregister. As such, the current state of research offers little in the form of a prospective study to provide an empirical review of underlying risk characteristics. Moreover, at this point in time no surveys exist which use personal accounts to judge the number of unreported cases - a method that would provide for an authentic incidence rate of recidivism amongst released sexual offenders.

The study forms part of the larger project Sexual Offenders in the Social-Therapeutic Institutions of the Free State of Saxony. As a result of the aforementioned gaps in the broader research, it is the task of the present study to identify sources that lead to recidivism amongst those released from prison or under parole.
To this end, the study focuses on the living conditions of released offenders. The relevance of factors pointing to a likelihood of recidivism, as outlined in expert opinions, are also of interest. Data on unreported cases will be collected in an attempt to uncover the extent and cause of recidivism in cases that were not prosecuted. This data will then be used to offer lessons and insights into the reality of life after release.

The project design conceptualises a two-stage procedure: the core data will be collected through interviews. This will be done in the broadest possible sense, to allow for unexpected influences on the stability of the subjects’ lives to be taken into account. The interviews will also be used to garner data on personal accounts of delinquency. On the other hand, tests and questionnaires will also be used to obtain quantitative data.

With regards to the necessary preparatory work, a number of expert opinions on legal prognosis have been viewed in order to select the criteria which the experts sight as particularly relevant. These criteria will be afforded special attention in the upcoming interviews. Unfortunately the results of this analysis were hampered by the inherent deficiencies of such prognoses: in assessing the risk of relapse a clear emphasis is placed on static, that is, non-dynamic risk factors. As the present project is focused on the life-course of offenders after their release, in preparing the interviews a theoretical approach has been opted for. This has meant that the emphasis is now placed on risk factors that are described by the broader literature as dynamic in nature.
Given the current state of research on unreported cases, time is to be set aside to further interview those who are likely to provide information on this statistic. It has been clearly demonstrated in other studies that the willingness to admit to acts of delinquency is strongly correlated with the interests of the subject. Accordingly, the decision has been taken to focus on the life situation. Possible relapse rates are to be collected through an anonymous questionnaire. The settings of recidivism are to be explored by a face-to-face interview with the aid of a fictitious recidivism scenario. The use of interviews allows for a common understanding about the criminally relevant facts to be reached and enables the living conditions of the subjects to be assessed in greater detail. In addition, the first quantitative interim data from the study “Sexual Offenders in the Social-Therapeutic Institutions of the Free State of Saxony” has also been produced. Since the test battery of the main project is far too broad for the planned follow-up examination, it has been resolved that a reduction in the number of significant quantitative survey instruments should occur.
After completing the necessary preparatory work it was possible to start with the survey in October 2008. By the end of 2008 an estimated 70 sexual and violent offenders, who are included in the larger project, were released from prisons in the federal state of Saxony. As of 31.01.2009, 31 of these releasees have been successfully contacted.