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Datum: 11.03.2020 18:15 - 20:00
Ort: Max-Planck-Institut für ausländisches und internationales Strafrecht, Günterstalstraße 73, 79100 Freiburg im Breisgau
Ansprechperson: Dr. Carolin F. Hillemanns
Email: c.hillemanns@mpicc.de
Veranstaltet von: Abteilung Kriminologie
Coherently Idiosyncratic Sanction Risk Perceptions and Deterrence © private

Ort: Fürs­ten­bergstr. 19 (Se­mi­nar­raum), 79102 Frei­burg.
Vor­trag mit an­schlie­ßen­dem Apéro.

This stu­dy ad­van­ces the con­cept of “idio­syn­cra­ti­cal­ly co­he­rent” sanc­ti­on risk per­cep­ti­on, whe­re­by the ab­so­lu­te le­vel risk va­ri­es over the full ran­ge of pro­ba­bi­li­ties from ze­ro to one but re­mains co­herent­ly groun­ded in ob­jec­ti­ve con­di­ti­ons. The stu­dy is ba­sed upon the re­sults of an ex­pe­ri­men­tal stu­dy in­vol­ving spee­ding on an in­t­er­state highway. Re­spon­dents view­ed vi­deos from the dri­ver’s per­spec­ti­ve of a car tra­ve­ling on an In­t­er­state highway. We find that whi­le sanc­ti­ons risk and sa­fe­ty per­cep­ti­ons for spee­ding idio­syn­cra­ti­cal­ly va­ry across re­spon­dents, they re­main groun­ded in a sen­si­ble fa­shi­on to ob­jec­ti­ve con­di­ti­ons. We al­so find that ci­ti­zen per­cep­ti­ons of ap­pre­hen­si­on risk are re­mar­ka­b­ly si­mi­lar to risk esti­ma­tes eli­ci­ted from state troo­pers who view­ed the sa­me vi­deos and we­re as­ked about the li­ke­lihood of a dri­ver being ci­ted for spee­ding in the­se cir­cum­stan­ces. Mo­reo­ver, in­ten­ti­ons to speed are cau­sal­ly lin­ked to the sa­me si­tua­tio­nal fea­tu­res that are cau­sal­ly lin­ked to sanc­ti­on risk and sa­fe­ty per­cep­ti­ons with the im­pli­ca­ti­on that in­ten­ti­ons to speed are sys­te­ma­ti­cal­ly re­la­ted to ap­pre­hen­si­on risk and sa­fe­ty per­cep­ti­ons.

Da­niel S. Na­gin is Te­resa and H. John Heinz III Uni­ver­si­ty Pro­fes­sor of Pu­blic Po­li­cy and Sta­ti­stics at the Heinz Col­le­ge, Car­ne­gie Mel­lon Uni­ver­si­ty. His re­se­arch fo­cu­ses on the evo­lu­ti­on of cri­mi­nal and an­ti­so­ci­al be­ha­viors over the li­fe cour­se, the de­ter­rent ef­fect of cri­mi­nal and non-cri­mi­nal pen­al­ties on il­le­gal be­ha­viors, and the de­ve­lop­ment of sta­ti­sti­cal me­thods for ana­ly­zing lon­gi­tu­di­nal da­ta. He is an elec­ted Fel­low of the Ame­ri­can So­cie­ty of Cri­mi­no­lo­gy, Ame­ri­can As­so­cia­ti­on for the Ad­van­ce­ment of Science, and Ame­ri­can Aca­de­my of Po­li­ti­cal and So­ci­al Science and the re­ci­pi­ent of the Ame­ri­can So­cie­ty of Cri­mi­no­lo­gy’s Ed­win H Suther­land Award in 2006, the Stock­holm Pri­ze in Cri­mi­no­lo­gy in 2014, Car­ne­gie Mel­lon Uni­ver­si­ty’s Alum­ni Dis­tin­guis­hed Achie­ve­ment Award in 2016 and the Na­tio­nal Aca­de­my of Science Award for Scien­ti­fic Re­view­ing in 2017.